The Covid-19 graphs have been made using the dataset provided by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University at their GitHub page. The data used end on May 15, 2020 for the United States. In addition to the state and federal graphs, I want to include a project that I have been working on.
I have been working on processing the data from each county in the United States to show whether they are suffering from an outbreak of Covid-19 or not. Last Wednesday was the first day that I posted preliminary data from each county. Since then, I have honed the math and I believe that I can create a better picture of which counties should be monitored closely for Covid-19 outbreaks.
One of the main changes to the algorithm was to separate “hotspots” from outbreaks. I am using the term hotspot to indicate that there is at least a 7.5% rise in cases in the county resulting in at least 15 new Covid-19 infections. Hotspots, being relatively small increases, should be easier to control but would indicate that attention should be paid. On the other hand, hotspots could also be misleading since it would be easy to reach such a low threshold from testing while not necessarily indicating that Covid-19 is spreading as rapidly as indicated.
Hotspots are also unique in the sense that a county might start off as a hotspot, grow into an outbreak, get the outbreak under control, and pass through the hotspot stage again. Because of this fact, hotspots should be looked at closely instead of assuming that they are in the process of becoming outbreaks themselves.
Outbreaks are calculated virtually the same as I had calculated them in the past. They require at least a 15% rise in cases in the county resulting in at least 50 new Covid-19 cases. This metric seems to indicate that the outbreak has escaped the typical controls that are in place for the given county. While an outbreak could be indicated as a side effect of heavy testing in an area, it is much more likely that it would be indicated by unrestrained community spreading of the virus.
As always, here are a few things to keep in mind while you are looking over the results presented here:
- Each graph covers the dates from March 1, 2020 through May 15, 2020.
- Daily reported infections are recorded in red.
- Normalized infections are recorded in blue.
- The x-axis indicates the date.
- The y-axis indicates the number of Covid-19 infections (reported or normalized) on that date.
- Each y-axis is best fit. While this makes it easy to view the overall trend for the state, care must be taken when making comparisons to note the actual number of cases between different graphs.
- Negative numbers should never be present and are no longer shown on the graphs. Negative numbers would normally indicate a reporting error. One reason to ignore them is that they are small enough to not significantly effect the data presented.
With this new data in mind, here are the results for the week:
Important:
Each graph shows two different pieces of data. The pieces of data are no longer indicated in an index to leave more room for the graph itself.
- Daily reported infections are reported in red.
- Normalized infections are reported in blue.
As you can see, the overall infection risk in the United States continues to fall. This is mostly due to New York, New Jersey, and other states with early, severe outbreaks bringing brought under control.
The District of Columbia is reported separately in the data, so I am including the graph of them separately as well.
Alabama counties with outbreaks:
- Butler
- DeKalb
- Franklin
- Marshall
- Mobile
- Montgomery
- Tuscaloosa
Alabama counties with hotspots:
- Autauga
- Baldwin
- Barbour
- Choctaw
- Clarke
- Coffee
- Colbert
- Crenshaw
- Dale
- Dallas
- Elmore
- Etowah
- Hale
- Houston
- Jefferson
- Lauderdale
- Lowndes
- Madison
- Marengo
- Morgan
- Pike
- Randolph
- Russell
- Shelby
- Sumter
- Tallapoosa
- Wilcox
Alaska counties with outbreaks: none.
Alaska counties with hotspots: none.
Arizona counties with outbreaks:
- Apache
- Coconino
- Maricopa
- Mohave
- Navajo
- Pima
- Pinal
- Yavapai
- Yuma
Arizona counties with hotspots:
- Santa Cruz
Arkansas counties with outbreaks:
- Jefferson
- St. Francis
Arkansas counties with hotspots:
- Benton
- Craighead
- Crittenden
- Pulaski
- Sharp
- Union
- Washington
California counties with outbreaks:
- Alameda
- Fresno
- Imperial
- Kern
- Kings
- Los Angeles
- Monterey
- Orange
- Riverside
- San Bernardino
- San Diego
- Santa Barbara
- Solano
- Sonoma
- Tulare
- Ventura
California counties with hotspots:
- Contra Costa
- Marin
- Merced
- San Francisco
- San Joaquin
- San Luis Obispo
- San Mateo
- Stanislaus
Colorado counties with outbreaks:
- Adams
- Logan
- Morgan
Colorado counties with hotspots:
- Arapahoe
- Boulder
- Broomfield
- Denver
- Douglas
- El Paso
- Jefferson
- Larimer
- Pueblo
- Summit
- Weld
Connecticut counties with outbreaks:
- Hartford
- Windham
Connecticut counties with hotspots:
- Fairfield
- Litchfield
- Middlesex
- New Haven
- New London
- Tolland
Delaware counties with outbreaks:
- Kent
- New Castle
- Sussex
Delaware counties with hotspots:
- Unassigned — reported separately, no location given.
Florida counties with outbreaks:
- Charlotte
- Collier
- Duval
- Gadsden
- Hamilton
- Jackson
- Martin
- Palm Beach
- Pinellas
- Polk
- Sarasota
Florida counties with hotspots:
- Alachua
- Brevard
- Broward
- DeSoto
- Escambia
- Hendry
- Hillsborough
- Lee
- Leon
- Manatee
- Marion
- Miami-Dade
- Monroe
- Orange
- Osceola
- Pasco
- Santa Rosa
- St. Lucie
- Unassigned — reported separately, no location given.
- Volusia
- Walton
Georgia counties with outbreaks:
- Barrow
- Chatham
- Cherokee
- Cobb
- Muscogee
- Out of GA — recorded separately, likely not Georgia residents.
- Unassigned — recorded separately, location not indicated.
Georgia counties with hotspots:
- Appling
- Bacon
- Butts
- Catoosa
- Clarke
- Clayton
- Clinch
- Coffee
- Colquitt
- Columbia
- Coweta
- DeKalb
- Dooly
- Douglas
- Fayette
- Floyd
- Forsyth
- Fulton
- Gilmer
- Gwinnett
- Hancock
- Henry
- Houston
- Lowndes
- Mitchell
- Newton
- Paulding
- Richmond
- Rockdale
- Thomas
- Tift
- Troup
- Ware
- Whitfield
- Worth
Hawaii counties with outbreaks: none.
Hawaii counties with hotspots: none.
Idaho counties with outbreaks:
- Twin Falls
Idaho counties with hotspots:
- Jerome
Illinois counties with outbreaks:
- Boone
- Champaign
- Cook
- DeKalb
- DuPage
- Kane
- Kankakee
- Kendall
- Lake
- Madison
- McHenry
- St. Clair
- Stephenson
- Union
- Will
- Winnebago
Illinois counties with hotspots:
- Cass
- Clinton
- Coles
- Grundy
- Iroquois
- Jackson
- Knox
- LaSalle
- Macon
- McLean
- Ogle
- Peoria
- Pulaski
- Randolph
- Rock Island
- Sangamon
Indiana counties with outbreaks:
- Allen
- Bartholomew
- Elkhart
- Jackson
- Johnson
- Lake
- Morgan
- Porter
- St. Joseph
- Tippecanoe
Indiana counties with hotspots:
- Boone
- Clark
- Clinton
- Delaware
- Dubois
- Floyd
- Hamilton
- Hancock
- Harrison
- Hendricks
- Henry
- Howard
- Jennings
- Kosciusko
- LaPorte
- Madison
- Marion
- Montgomery
- Noble
- Scott
- Shelby
- Vanderburgh
- Vigo
- Warrick
- White
Iowa counties with outbreaks:
- Buena Vista
- Crawford
- Dallas
- Dubuque
- Muscatine
- Polk
- Pottawattamie
- Sioux
- Wapello
- Woodbury
Iowa counties with hotspots:
- Allamakee
- Linn
- Louisa
- Marshall
- Monroe
- Plymouth
- Scott
- Story
- Tama
- Warren
Kansas counties with outbreaks:
- Finney
- Ford
- Sedgwick
Kansas counties with hotspots:
- Jackson
- Johnson
- Seward
- Shawnee
- Wyandotte
Kentucky counties with outbreaks:
- Boone
- Fayette
- Kenton
- Warren
Kentucky counties with hotspots:
- Butler
- Campbell
- Daviess
- Jefferson
- Logan
- Ohio
- Shelby
Louisiana counties with outbreaks:
- East Baton Rouge
- Franklin
- Iberia
- Livingston
- Rapides
- Union
Louisiana counties with hotspots:
- Acadia
- Ascension
- Assumption
- Bossier
- Caddo
- Catahoula
- De Soto
- East Feliciana
- Iberville
- Lafayette
- Lincoln
- Madison
- Morehouse
- Ouachita
- Pointe Coupee
- St. James
- St. Landry
- St. Martin
- St. Mary
- Tangipahoa
- Terrebonne
- Washington
- Webster
- West Baton Rouge
- Winn
Maine counties with outbreaks:
- Cumberland
Maine counties with hotspots:
- Androscoggin
- York
Maryland counties with outbreaks:
- Anne Arundel
- Baltimore
- Baltimore City
- Caroline
- Carroll
- Cecil
- Charles
- Frederick
- Harford
- Howard
- Montgomery
- Prince George’s
- St. Mary’s
- Washington
- Wicomico
Maryland counties with hotspots:
- Calvert
- Dorchester
- Kent
- Queen Anne’s
- Worcester
Massachusetts counties with outbreaks:
- Bristol
- Worcester
Massachusetts counties with hotspots:
- Barnstable
- Essex
- Hampden
- Hampshire
- Middlesex
- Norfolk
- Plymouth
Michigan counties with outbreaks:
- Berrien
- Kalamazoo
- Kent
- Muskegon
- Ottawa
- Out of MI — reported separately, presumably not Michigan residents.
Michigan counties with hotspots:
- Allegan
- Bay
- Branch
- Calhoun
- Ingham
- Jackson
- Monroe
- Oceana
- Saginaw
- Shiawassee
- St. Clair
- St. Joseph
- Tuscola
- Van Buren
Minnesota counties with outbreaks:
- Anoka
- Clay
- Dakota
- Hennepin
- Kandiyohi
- Olmsted
- Ramsey
- Rice
- Scott
- Stearns
- Washington
- Wright
Minnesota counties with hotspots:
- Benton
- Blue Earth
- Carver
- Chippewa
- Itasca
- Mower
- Nobles
- Pine
- Sherburne
- Steele
- Todd
Mississippi counties with outbreaks:
- Forrest
- Holmes
- Jones
- Lauderdale
- Leake
- Madison
- Neshoba
- Scott
Mississippi counties with hotspots:
- Attala
- Chickasaw
- Clarke
- Copiah
- Covington
- DeSoto
- Harrison
- Hinds
- Jasper
- Jefferson Davis
- Lamar
- Leflore
- Lincoln
- Lowndes
- Monroe
- Newton
- Noxubee
- Oktibbeha
- Rankin
- Simpson
- Union
- Warren
- Washington
- Yalobusha
- Yazoo
Missouri counties with outbreaks:
- Buchanan
Missouri counties with hotspots:
- Clay
- Jackson
- Kansas City
- Lincoln
- Platte
- Saline
- St. Louis
- St. Louis City — reported separately in the dataset.
Montana counties with outbreaks: none.
Montana counties with hotspots: none.
Nebraska counties with outbreaks:
- Colfax
- Dodge
- Douglas
- Lancaster
- Platte
- Saline
- Sarpy
Nebraska counties with hotspots:
- Adams
- Buffalo
- Dakota
- Dawson
- Madison
Nevada counties with outbreaks: none.
Nevada counties with hotspots:
- Clark
- Washoe
New Hampshire counties with outbreaks:
- Hillsborough
New Hampshire counties with hotspots:
- Merrimack
- Rockingham
- Strafford
New Jersey counties with outbreaks:
- Atlantic
- Cumberland
- Salem
New Jersey counties with hotspots:
- Burlington
- Camden
- Cape May
- Gloucester
- Hunterdon
- Mercer
- Ocean
New Mexico counties with outbreaks:
- Dona Ana
- McKinley
- San Juan
New Mexico counties with hotspots:
- Bernalillo
- Cibola
New York counties with outbreaks:
- Monroe
- Niagara
- Oneida
- Onondaga
New York counties with hotspots:
- Albany
- Columbia
- Erie
- Fulton
- Ontario
- Orleans
- Rensselaer
- Saratoga
- Schenectady
- Sullivan
- Warren
- Washington
North Carolina counties with outbreaks:
- Buncombe
- Columbus
- Cumberland
- Davidson
- Duplin
- Forsyth
- Guilford
- Henderson
- Lee
- Mecklenburg
- Randolph
- Robeson
- Sampson
- Union
- Wake
- Wilkes
- Yadkin
North Carolina counties with hotspots:
- Alamance
- Bertie
- Bladen
- Burke
- Cabarrus
- Caldwell
- Catawba
- Chatham
- Craven
- Durham
- Edgecombe
- Gaston
- Granville
- Halifax
- Harnett
- Hoke
- Iredell
- Johnston
- Lenoir
- Moore
- Nash
- New Hanover
- Northampton
- Orange
- Pender
- Pitt
- Richmond
- Rowan
- Surry
- Vance
- Wayne
- Wilson
North Dakota counties with outbreaks:
- Cass
North Dakota counties with hotspots:
- Grand Forks
Ohio counties with outbreaks:
- Ashtabula
- Belmont
- Butler
- Clark
- Columbiana
- Cuyahoga
- Franklin
- Hamilton
- Lucas
- Mercer
- Miami
- Montgomery
- Stark
- Tuscarawas
- Warren
Ohio counties with hotspots:
- Allen
- Clermont
- Crawford
- Darke
- Delaware
- Fairfield
- Geauga
- Greene
- Lake
- Licking
- Lorain
- Madison
- Mahoning
- Medina
- Monroe
- Pickaway
- Richland
- Summit
- Trumbull
- Wayne
- Wood
Oklahoma counties with outbreaks:
- Comanche
- Texas
Oklahoma counties with hotspots:
- Grady
- Oklahoma
- Tulsa
Oregon counties with outbreaks:
- Marion
Oregon counties with hotspots:
- Clackamas
- Multnomah
- Washington
Pennsylvania counties with outbreaks:
- Bucks
- Chester
- Cumberland
- Dauphin
- Delaware
- Franklin
- Huntingdon
- Schuylkill
Pennsylvania counties with hotspots:
- Adams
- Allegheny
- Beaver
- Berks
- Columbia
- Erie
- Lackawanna
- Lancaster
- Lebanon
- Lehigh
- Lycoming
- Montgomery
- Northampton
- Northumberland
- Philadelphia
- Pike
- York
Rhode Island counties with outbreaks:
- Kent
- Providence
- Washington
Rhode Island counties with hotspots:
- Bristol
- Newport
South Carolina counties with outbreaks:
- Florence
- Greenville
South Carolina counties with hotspots:
- Aiken
- Anderson
- Chesterfield
- Colleton
- Darlington
- Dillon
- Fairfield
- Horry
- Lee
- Lexington
- Pickens
- Richland
- Spartanburg
- Sumter
- Williamsburg
- York
South Dakota counties with outbreaks:
- Brown
- Minnehaha
South Dakota counties with hotspots:
- Lincoln
- Pennington
Tennessee counties with outbreaks:
- Davidson
- Hamilton
- Hardeman
- Lake
- Robertson
- Rutherford
- Shelby
- Tipton
- Wayne
Tennessee counties with hotspots:
- Bedford
- Cheatham
- Knox
- Lauderdale
- Macon
- Montgomery
- Putnam
- Wilson
Texas counties with outbreaks:
- Brazoria
- Cameron
- Collin
- Dallas
- Deaf Smith
- Denton
- El Paso
- Grayson
- Harris
- Houston
- Jefferson
- Nueces
- Potter
- Randall
- Tarrant
- Titus
- Williamson
Texas counties with hotspots:
- Angelina
- Bastrop
- Bell
- Bexar
- Bowie
- Brazos
- Coryell
- Ellis
- Fort Bend
- Gonzales
- Gray
- Gregg
- Grimes
- Harrison
- Hays
- Hidalgo
- Johnson
- Jones
- Kaufman
- Lamar
- Liberty
- Maverick
- Medina
- Midland
- Montgomery
- Moore
- Nacogdoches
- Red River
- Rockwall
- Shelby
- Smith
- Travis
- Walker
- Washington
- Webb
Utah counties with outbreaks:
- Salt Lake
- Southwest Utah
Utah counties with hotspots:
- Bear River
- Davis
- San Juan
- Utah
- Wasatch
- Weber-Morgan
Vermont counties with outbreaks: none.
Vermont counties with hotspots: none.
Virginia counties with outbreaks:
- Accomack
- Alexandria
- Arlington
- Buckingham
- Chesapeake
- Chesterfield
- Culpeper
- Fairfax
- Fauquier
- Hanover
- Henrico
- Loudoun
- Manassas
- Manassas Park
- Norfolk
- Prince William
- Richmond City
- Rockingham
- Spotsylvania
- Stafford
Virginia counties with hotspots:
- Albemarle
- Augusta
- Carroll
- Frederick
- Fredericksburg
- Galax
- Hampton
- Harrisonburg
- Hopewell
- Mecklenburg
- Newport News
- Northampton
- Page
- Petersburg
- Portsmouth
- Roanoke
- Roanoke City
- Shenandoah
- Staunton
- Suffolk
- Sussex
- Virginia Beach
- Warren
- Winchester
Washington counties with outbreaks:
- Unassigned — reported separately, no location data given.
- Yakima
Washington counties with hotspots:
- Benton
- Chelan
- Clark
- Douglas
- Kittitas
- Pierce
- Skagit
West Virginia counties with outbreaks: none.
West Virginia counties with hotspots:
- Berkeley
- Kanawha
Wisconsin counties with outbreaks:
- Kenosha
- Milwaukee
- Racine
- Rock
- Waukesha
Wisconsin counties with hotspots:
- Brown
- Calumet
- Dane
- Dodge
- Eau Claire
- Fond du Lac
- Green
- Outagamie
- Ozaukee
- Walworth
- Washington
- Winnebago
Wyoming counties with outbreaks: none.
Wyoming counties with hotspots:
- Fremont
- Laramie
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